Despite all the ambient noise and uncertainty in world markets, Dietmar Harting, president of the German ZVEI (Central Organization of the Electro and Electronic Industries) is confident, almost bullish on the state of the electronic industry in Europe and the rest of the world. ”The mood of the exhibitors is good to very good”, he declared at the organization’s traditional meeting through the last Electronica trade show in Munich. ”Our conclusion is that this event is sending a very positive signal.”
Chances are, as entrepreneur Harting believes, that in 2003 the long ”thirst period” will come to an end: inventories are being depleted at a record pace, more components are being used in industrial and automotive systems, and the merciless price erosion due to underused manufacturing capacities will be reduced to its regular peace-time pace.
Compared to 2000, the time frame of the last Electronica, the two following years 2001 and 2002 were bad of course, and equally so. They brought a drop of 24.3% in total world market volume for electronic components, active and passive, discrete and integrated alike. It as a steep drop indeed: from $359bn in 2000 to $275bn in 2002. Nevertheless, Harting insists, 2000 was a highly exceptional year. Have patience, he pleads, ”After all, we are still 8% above 1999”.
In all of this, only the Asia-Pacific region did reasonably well. It even man- aged to grow its component markets by 15.5% in the midst of global gloom and doom. This emerging area grew at the expense of the Americas (-8.2%) and Europe (-6.3%) as well. In total: the component world market achieved a solid ”zero growth”, and it resulted in significant shifts in regional market weights. In terms of market shares: Asia-Pacific now accounts for 33.5% in total market volume. The Americas (North and South) still hold 24.0%. Japan follows with 20.8%. And Europe, number four in this row, stands at 19.2% amid all the migration to low-cost manufacturing environments, namely mainland China.
The official ZVEI outlook for 2003 is quite optimistic: single-digit component-market growth overall. Not too far from the average growth figure that all other industry pundits cannot agree upon when it comes to a short and midterm prognosis. At least it’s something to begin the new business year with fresh beliefs. WS/gbw
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