As one result, the trade show saw about 47,000 visitors in total, a substantial decline (minus 16%) from the 56,000 two years before. Nevertheless, the share of foreign visitors remained with 31% as high as before. Most of these attendees were from Europe, and the overseas figure decreased from 14 to 9%. In a survey, 95% of the visitors rated Productronica between “good to excellent”. From the exhibitor side, the quality of attendees was rated very high. (Maybe the expression quality is a point to be discussed in this context, and we should therefore use as standard qualification, competence and influence.) But we have to keep in mind that besides the recession, the event took place just two months after the terrorist attack in the US, during Afghanistan war. Such dreadful circumstances were really not encouraging to high trade traffic.
The problem from which electronics production worldwide is suffering at the moment is overcapacity in manufacturing resources, especially equipment, price erosion and minor user attention because of declining interest from the electronics consumer side. This is quite different to semiconductor consumption, which will now often be misleadingly used as an example for the faintest signs of recovery. If a company has used up (or almost) all its stock on semiconductor devices, it has inevitably place orders in-time through the semiconductor manufacturers’ sales and distribution channels. But production equipment is very different. It isn’t a short-termed nine-day wonder, but a long-lasting machine array consuming a lot of money and in need of a lot of experience for economical and clever operation. Even for this year, most of the placement equipment suppliers, for example, don’t see the big breakthrough because of the enormous surplus offers in the worldwide machine market. Some of them are expecting their business back again to its old strength at earliest in the year 2004, and that’s quite a long time, giving opportunity for some consolidation maneuvers.
With electronicChina 2002 (International Trade Fair for Components, Assemblies, Electronics Production and Photo-nics Technology), the Munich-based show founder and organizer offers companies an Asian platform on the new Expo Center (SNIEC) in Shanghai-Pudong from 12th to 15th March 2002. High expectations rest on China, especially in the semiconductor and electronics manufacturing sectors. Most of China’s high demand is covered by imports, with the government supporting the import of technology from other countries. Thus the Chinese market will provide significant opportunities. And there are more reasons to bet on China: the nation has over 1.3bn citizens with an insatiable appetite for electronics gear, and the current entry into world trade organization (WTO) has thrown open the gates to the third largest market.
According to a study by the German ZVEI, China will be the third largest user of microelectronics by 2005. Other estimates are that in 2003 its semiconductor market will constitute 8.6% of the world’s expected total revenues of US$ 312bn. Ranked only sixth in the world in 1999, the Chinese total electronics market will move to third place by 2003, according to Cahners In-Stat Group, and the electronics market will reach US$ 86bn by 2003. Sustained demand in the communications, data processing, consumer and industrial sectors is likely to make China the world’s second largest market for semiconductors by 2010, second only to the US. In the last years, capital investment in the electronics industry increased by 48.9%. Production of mobile phones increased by 130% and of ICs by 51.5%. The largest cell phone market in the world is forecasted to reach 300m users by 2005. Though the chip market, at US$ 11.4 billion, is the largest in Asia, current own production meets only about 20% of demand, presenting a huge business prospect. Gerhard B. Wolski
http://fair.electronicchina.de/
