The severe downturn in the global Photovoltaic (PV) market in 2009 actually could have a positive outcome for the worldwide solar industry, yielding a more mature and orderly supply chain when growth returns, according to iSuppli Corp.
Worldwide installations of PV systems will decline to 3.5 Gigawatts (GW) in 2009, down 32 percent from 5.2GW in 2008. With the average price per solar watt declining by 12 percent in 2009, global revenue generated by PV system installations will plunge by 40.2 percent to $18.2 billion, down from $30.5 billion in 2008.
“For years, the PV industry enjoyed vigorous double-digit annual growth in the 40 percent range, spurring a wild-west mentality,” said Dr. Henning Wicht, principal analyst for iSuppli.
The single event most responsible for the 2009 PV market slowdown was a sharp decline in expected PV installations in Spain. Spain accounted for 50 percent of worldwide installations in 2008. An artificial demand surge had been created as the country’s feed-in-tariff rate was set to drop.This set a well-defined deadline for growth.
Even new and upgraded incentives from nations including the U.S. and Japan – and attractive investment conditions in France, Italy, the Czech Republic, Greece and other countries – cannot compensate for the Spanish whiplash. The Spanish impact will continue into 2010, restraining global revenue growth to 29.2 percent for the year. Beyond Spain, the PV market is being adversely impacted by the credit crunch. According to Isuppli, after 2010, the fundamental drivers of PV demand will reassert themselves, bringing a 57.8% increase in revenue in 2011 and similar growth rates in 2012 and 2013.
EPPE 425
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