Dr. Martin Stark, chairman of the Electronic Components and Systems Group within the ZVEI, sees the German electronic components market return to growth in 2007. A minor increase of 0.5 % to euro 17.5 bn (about $ 26 billion) is projected for this year. For 2008, he anticipates a strong increase of about 4.5 % to euro 18.2 bn. Higher demand especially in automotive, information technology and industrial electronics is expected to fuel the growth of the components market.
It’s no surprise: Semiconductor devices dominate the components market reaching 63 % of the total German volume. The revenues (measured in euro) for semiconductors weakened by 4 % in 2006 and probably by almost 1 % to 11 bn in 2007. Though measured in US dollar, there is still a friendly plus. However in 2008, Dr. Stark anticipates a pleasant recovery of about 5.5 % to approx. euro 12 bn, driven by the high demand for automotive electronics (growth 8.4 %), information technology (plus 7.6 %), and industrial electronics with another plus of 6.7 %. Telecommunications (minus 3.6 %) and consumer electronics (-3.1 %) may probably experience a further slow-down as in the previous years. To date, the lion’s share of more than one-third of component revenue in Germany goes into automotive electronics, followed by industrial and telecom electronics with 30 % and 22 %, respectively.
The current ZVEI figures reveal that for the passive components market increase automotive electronics is the main provider. The association sees an expansion of 5.6 % to euro 1.6 bn in 2007 and another 3 % in 2008, mainly driven by the demand for piezo components used for fuel injection in diesel engines. A steady increase of the market volume is anticipated in electromechanical parts, 2.4 % in 2007 and about 2.1 % next year to a total of approx. euro 2.9 bn. The German market for printed circuit boards (PCBs) will grow by 2.5 % in 2007 and by 2.6 % to euro 1.48 billion in 2008. At the same time, the worldwide market for PCBs is predicted to grow by 7.4 % to $ 50.85 bn in 2007, and for 2008, another increase by 6 % may come.
Interestingly, the total world market for electronic components in 2008 is expected to get as high as $ 419 bn (plus 6.5 %), whereas Southeast Asia alone will take 2001 bn, but Japan, the US and Europe will rest just at 71 to 74 bn. A rewarding guesswork seems to be the anticipated global volume of the semiconductor market next year. To start with this task: Current evaluations say the semiconductor market will come into the region of about $ 253 to $ 263 bn in 2007. Adding to this 7 to 15 % according to the market pundits’ widely differing estimates will probably lead to a relatively reliable figure for 2008. So far we have the prognosis of the professional market analysts and researchers to complement the insight into our industry, heavily dependent on the most exact semiconductor market volume assessment.
(Gerhard B. Wolski)
EPP Europe 405
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