The U.S.-based Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) is projecting an industry recovery with double-digit growth over the next two years, as is assumed in its 2002/2005 annual forecast, recently presented by AMD Chairman Jerry Sanders III. Worldwide sales of semiconductors are expected to have increased by 1.8% in 2002, by 19.8% this year and by 21.7% in 2004. „The long-awaited recovery is underway“, thinks Sanders. „We believe the next several years will see steady growth following the industry’s steepest-ever decline in 2001“. He noted that worldwide semiconductor sales are projected to surpass the peak revenues of the super year 2000 eventually in 2004. „We believe that compound annual growth rates in the range of 8 to 10% will be the norm going forward over the longer term. This will represent a tide change for our industry. We can no longer count on the proverbial rising tide that lifts all boats. Nevertheless, a huge industry with high compound annual growth will continue to offer opportunities for significant growth for companies that consistently deliver desirable products for their customers“.
The SIA forecast includes detail on regional semiconductor markets and products. In the following, we have composed a compact overview on some of the most important prospects. Reflecting the rapid shift of contract manufacturing operations to the Asia-Pacific region – primarily China and Taiwan – semiconductor consumption in Pac Rim grew by 30% to $52bn, and should continue growing in 2003 and 2004 with 24% to $64 billion and 25% to $80bn, respectively. „Like the other markets, Asia-Pacific will experience a slowdown, reporting only small growth to $83bn in 2005“. In 2001, this region accounted for 29% of worldwide semiconductor consumption. In 2002, this will have risen to 37%.
The Americas‘ market volume will have seen a decline of 12% to $31bn in 2002, and then grow 14% to $36bn in 2003, 22% to $43bn in 2004, and then decline in 2005 to $41bn. For Europe, the decline is said to be 9% in 2002 to $27bn, and then grow 18% to $32bn in 2003, 19% to $39bn in 2004, and decrease slightly to $38bn in 2005. The Japanese market will have seen decrease of 7.5% to $31bn in 2002, increase of 22% to $37bn in 2003, 18% to $44bn in 2004, and then decreasing in 2005 to $43bn. From this prognosis it’s interesting to see that the markets in Europe. America and Japan have the tendency to adjust to almost the same volume.
In most product segments such as discretes, analog, DSP, ASIC, MOS, microprocessors/microcontrollers, there is an almost continually sound market development expected. However, no one segment more clearly demonstrates the highly volatile nature of the global semiconductor market than DRAM devices. These memory ICs, once used almost entirely in computers and the like, are now being found in a broad number of consumer and communication applications. The DRAM market is expected to have grown 35% to $15bn last year, 35% to $20bn in 2003, and 43% to $29bn in 2004. In 2005, DRAMs are forecast to drop deeply to $21bn in sales. According to SIA, the total semiconductor market will have experienced a slight increase of 1.8% last year (Gartner Dataquest sees a mere plus of 0.5%) in sales to $141bn. For this year, the SIA forecasts growth of 19.8% to $169bn, 22% to $206bn in 2004, and then remain flat at $206bn in 2005. (gbw)
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