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A golden series of 20 promising global shows

Electronica jubilee event could withstand the decline in business
A golden series of 20 promising global shows

An uninterrupted series of 20 successful shows and industry conferences in almost 40 years – that’s indeed a fitting occasion for a look back in pride. Electronica in Munich, from its modest beginnings in 1964 with 140 national exhibitors to its latest, new-media-savvy incarnation of fall 2002, has become the convergence point of modern microelectronics. And it has turned into the core of an ongoing development of a number of further events such as ElectronicaUSA.

In fact, historically, Electronica introduced the adventure and the benefits of high-tech manufacturing, in particular to Germany and its then stodgy mechanical-engineering tradition, and then on to Europe and all its attendant tech-trade territories as well. Over the years, almost unnoticed in some distant quarters, this event has developed globally into the largest, most comprehensive showcase and discourse platform for components, assemblies, systems and software for the manufacture of electronics goods. All this despite Europe’s presumed or apparent limitations in sizes and dynamics of markets. A miracle of sorts. However, we shouldn’t forget that Europe, and foremost its unionized club, is growing steadily. The EU, currently made up of about 370m fellow Europeans, will expand to more than 440m with the inclusion of a number of eastern and southern countries beginning by 2004. From this, size of the potential market seems not the issue, but after the global burst of the new-economy bubble, dynamic in the electronics markets is different now, excluding for example mainland China. For example in Germany, with its gross national product (GPD) accounting for about 25% of economical power within the common-currency club, economical dynamic has become extraordinarily critical. But in general, the situation in electronics manufacturing in Europe seems much more encouraging as the latest bad information from the U.S. is about to be revealed. So far, this was just a short look at some of the most important aspects of the current business environments, in which the Munich show organizer has placed its events.

The nucleus of further shows development
No wonder in regard to the global scenario: Electronica, Productronica and Laser have in the meantime been implemented into a worldwide network of fairs and conferences. The umbrella Global Electronics, established by the Munich show organizer two years ago, links them tightly. And its internet portal provides access to exhibitor and industry news. Already in existence are foreign activities such as componex/electronicIndia, electronicAsia and electronicAmericas. Last year, electronicChina came into being as well, and it will now co-locate with Semicon China and PCIM China at the Shanghai New International Expo Center. This should bring savings and synergies for exhibitors and attendees alike. At home, FiberComm and Embedded Systems will debut this year in Munich.
Very ambitious however is the anticipated jump across the Atlantic to North America – to be precise, to San Francisco’s Moscone Center. Beginning in 2004, there will be an event called Electronica USA, closely modeled after the original Munich show. ”It will be a real international trade show and a business event,” Munich-based executive Kurt Schraudy believes. ”At U.S. trade shows for example there is no such thing as catering as it is here at Electronica, together with other procedures. We would like to get this taste of Electronica to the U.S.” Moreover, it also should provide a gate to the North American market for many suppliers from all over the world. Nevertheless, the question arises: is this location just an entry to the West Coast? No doubt it’s an outstandingly important electronics business area, especially when it comes to semiconductors and their manufacturing equipment. Up to now, it appears to be an unwritten agreement that most of the important electronics business events will have to take place in the West of the U.S. However, this may become out of fashion as more as the dramatic decline in electronics business places its pressure on expenses of all kinds.
ElectronicaUSA is high on the agenda of the new managing director Klaus Dittrich, now following the acclaimed trade-fair principal Joachim Ensslin. Under Ensslin’s baton, Munich vastly enhanced its stature as one of the high-tech world’s leading exhibition and conference venues. Now, the Munich-headquartered trade fair giant is on the go to North America. Dittrich’s job ahead: turning Electronica into ”the nucleus of global electronics in a worldwide network of trade fairs”. The chances are there in the U.S. after the demise of the venerable West Coast event Wescon, according to which Electronica was modeled back in pioneering 1964. ”ElectronicaUSA closes a gap in the world’s largest market for electronics”, he states optimistically. ”Despite a multitude of smaller, more specialized fairs and conferences, there is something missing in the U.S. – a large event which connects all areas of electronics and offers a complete overview of the American electronics industry”.
That’s an ambitious endeavor. It will require even higher levels of dynamic adaptation and competitiveness, stamina and deep pockets as well. Moreover, it will also require deployment of all the resources and decades-long experience of the Munich-based organization and its U.S. partner CMP Media. This partner is an experienced event planner and multimedia publisher, which will be responsible for the conference part on embedded systems like the one taking place in Germany. Dittrich expects that, ”ElectronicaUSA will advance to become the most important comprehensive event in the area of electronics within the U.S.” For the first year, 2004, he counts on 500 exhibitors from North America, Europe and Asia, and more than 20,000 attendees.
Electronica, highlight amidst heigh uncertainly
Taken together, last Electronica at home in Munich was another triumph, and the plans of its organizer appear no less viable in the worldwide competitive race for readily applicable, efficiently networked and aggregated manufacturing information. In the face of dramatically heightened uncertainties in a shock-prone world economy, the show managed to hold on to its exhibitors (3003 compared to 3050 in the freak-peek year 2000). About 77.000 attendees undertook the journey to Bavaria in November. Compared to 83,000 last time around that’s a drop by 6%, albeit much less of what other shows have had to endure. The international exhibitor presence was still high in numbers: Taiwan 352, US 332, UK 240, China 132, Italy 123, Swiss 112, Hong Kong 109, France 89, Netherlands 69, Japan 59, and so on.
Focus on industrial, consumer and auto
Further thematic segmentation into 17 groupings of themes by now, and services helped visitors to navigate the 150.000 square meters of the huge, fully booked exposition and convention center that sits on the territory of the former international airport. Expanding the familiar staple of active and passive components, electromechanical devices, test and measurement equipment and the like, the Electronica architects have added some more application-oriented segments to the show and conference bouquet as well. By doing this, it obviously hopes to instill and demonstrate a sense of its future directions and application areas, such as embedded systems, automotive innovations, MEMS (micro electro mechanical systems) as well as telecommunication and industrial electronics.
The theme-park mentality of Electronica, offering technical conferences, industry-scenario panels and vendor-product presentations on highly important topics in several, specially set-up and roped-off Arena spaces, seem to work best in the current context of reduced expectations of formerly high-flying markets. IT equipment and PCs have faltered as the major consumers and drivers of electronics, and, subsequently, as engines of investment in manufacturing capacity. Instead, Electronica beamed its spotlights on the industrial, telecommunication and automotive industries, and to a smaller extent to consumer electronics and health care. These main areas represent Europe’s traditional strengths in application-driven electronics, despite their relatively small share in the overall market. Now they have become promising enough to attract a formidable and growing number of exhibitors and suppliers from the Far East (Hong Kong, China, Taiwan and Korea) to cater to the European marketplace. What a change.
The long-term prospects of automotive electronics are said to be good. By 2005, it will account for a third of an average vehicle’s production cost, according to a prognosis from a number of different sides. The fact remains that, currently, the automotive sector generally consumes only about 7% (with the tendency to 10%) of all semiconductors, and in the face of recession also sales of new cars is dropping now remarkably. However, seen from a European perspective, this situation is more promising: here about 13% to 15% of semiconductors go into cars; in Germany, with its smart car culture, it’s even more pronounced, reportedly at 25% at the moment. Similar relations apply for electromechanical and micro-mechanical components and systems. Today, the average car contains electronics for euro 1850. In 2008, this could rise to 2600.
After a wave of engine and transmission control systems, the design focus is now increasing on safety and comfort devices for vehicle occupants – airbag inflation control and seat positioning systems and other functions. Next on the agenda of automotive electronics engineers will be car-body systems, offering temperature control and other comfort features. And the march of in-car communication, navigation and entertainment drones on unabashedly, especially in top-of-range automobiles, regardless of whether meaningful or not. Not to be forgotten are the apparent problems with the reliability of those highly complex systems. Another promising field for electronics content is the worldwide mandated reduction in exhaust gases (especially CO2). This dictates lower fuel consumption and direct-fuel injection schemes. Ironically, at the moment most carmakers are pursuing a renaissance of huge and expensive top-end vehicles with even bigger engine blocks. The rebirth of the good ol‘ gas-guzzlers in a new look? Nevertheless, on the horizon looms X-by-wire, and the partial replacement of mechanical and hydraulic controls by electronic commands. All of these are regarded as exciting fields for makers of chips, assemblies and modules as well as cars. The European portion of worldwide automotive electronics could further rise to 39%. In this sector, long-term growth rates of 10% appear quite realistic.
Can the industry grow back in 2003?
What are the near-term prospects for components makers and electronic manufacturing-equipment vendors? Despite the noticeable attempts to keep up good spirits, there was no consensus of what actual growth potential there is in 2003, and when will we really get out of the recession? However, there is something such as a common belief among electronics executives that the deepest point has now been reached at the end of 2002 and in the first quarters of 2003. Since even worldwide leading and renowned high-tech companies have been hit very hard, the situation is more than frightening. ”We want to survive”, as Agilent’s European VP Raffaele Gatta has put it, for example. There are too many variables to consider in financial and outside shocks imposed by geopolitics. Poor visibility prevails. This was quite evident at the distinguished Electronica Forum (Where is the semiconductor industry off to?). It put a panel of six semiconductor executives in front of an expectant audience. Confronted with the question of whether a rise of 20% is thinkable by answering just yes or no (life seems not as simple), they simply couldn’t reach a reasonable average or consensus.
No wonder as noticed elsewhere after a dismal 2002, which didn’t even match the widely anticipated growth prognosis of 3% (it’s more likely between 1 to 2%), that the 2003 forecasts ”are all over the place.” And they seem to get dimmer by the week. A rise in the double-digits now passes for the optimistic view. However, according to market researcher Derek Lidow of iSupply, there is at least some indication for hope: the hidden consumption of semiconductors within the manufacturing sector caused by silent inventory depletions. Not enough to stop the murderous price erosions on all levels of the value chain. Says Lidow, ”The actual consumption rate in the third quarter was up by 10%, which shows that some momentum is building for 2003.” It would be not an act of some temerity to say that we all hope for such a kind of recovery on all levels of electronics commerce.
Werner Schulz/Gerhard B. Wolski
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Titelbild EPP EUROPE Electronics Production and Test 11
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11.2023
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